College football is entering a new era as it prepares for the long-anticipated 12-team playoff format. After years of the Bowl Championship Series era and the four-team playoff, this expansion is sure to bring more opportunities for teams to compete on the biggest stage. And given how open the race has been to earn those top 12 spots thus far, the debate and controversy is here to stay.
Although this is not the first time college football has used a playoff format, the criteria to secure a bid is much more complicated. Here are a few important points to keep in mind…
• The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids.
• Four highest-ranked conference champions are seeded #1-4 and receive first-round byes.
• Seven at-large teams are determined by the remaining highest-ranked teams.
• Seeds 5-8 host first round games
• The quarterfinals will be hosted by the Fiesta, Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowl.
• The semifinals will be hosted by the Orange and Cotton Bowl.
Given these new criteria, the value of winning your conference has skyrocketed. Before, winning the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 or ACC didn’t guarantee a spot in the four-team playoff, as the top-four were determined solely by ranking. Now, a team will automatically be granted a spot in the playoff if they’re victorious on conference championship Saturday. Additionally, the concept of home playoff games is unlike anything the sport has even seen. Seeds 9-12 will be forced to travel to hostile environments that seeds 5-8 have to offer. Whether it’s a Midwest team breathing hot and humid air, or a southern team grinding in frigid and snowy conditions, a win-or-go-home situation on a college campus is must-see TV and promises to deliver an electrifying atmosphere.
Breaking down the bracket
The rankings from the College Football Playoff Top 25 reveal show on Tuesday, November 19 are as follows:
1. Oregon (11-0)
2. Ohio State (9-1)
3. Texas (9-1)
4. Penn State (9-1)
5. Indiana (10-0)
6. Notre Dame (9-1)
7. Alabama (8-2)
8. Miami (9-1)
9. Ole Miss (8-2)
10. Georgia (8-2)
11. Tennessee (8-2)
12. Boise State (9-1)
13. SMU (9-1)
14. BYU (9-1)
Before we dive into the rankings, it’s important to distinguish the difference between where a team is ranked and seeded. The rankings are displayed as above, while the seeding comes into play when forming the bracket. Remember, the four highest-ranked conference champions are seeded #1-4 and will receive first-round byes. Therefore, the bracket as it stands now is projecting who the conference champions will be based on the rankings.
You may be wondering why I included #14 BYU in this list. That’s because they currently lead the Big 12, giving them an automatic bid and pushing Tennessee out of the playoff. Because the Cougars are the lowest seeded conference leader and are ranked below the top-12 teams, they’d project at the #12 seed and wouldn’t get a first-round bye. In another example, Miami is currently ranked #8, but because they’re atop the ACC, they’d receive a first-round bye and project as the #3 seed. Trust me, it’s complicated. But once we get closer to the conference championship Saturday, the playoff picture will slowly begin to reveal itself.
As of these latest rankings, there was no movement in the top five, as each team won last weekend. #1 Oregon is the consensus best team in the country with no losses and the best win in the country over #2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the edge over #3 Texas as they had a competitive one-point loss on the road while the Longhorns fell to a lower-ranked #10 Georgia at home, 30-15. Ohio State also has a better win against Penn State who sits at #4. #5 Indiana rounds out the top five and although they’re undefeated, they have a much weaker strength of schedule than the Nittany Lions. #6 Notre Dame is sitting in a favorable spot, but because they’re independent and aren’t in a conference to receive an auto bid, the Irish cannot afford to lose in the next two weeks.
It seems the committee is giving #7 Alabama the advantage over #8 Miami because of their three wins over current CFP Top 25 opponents, while the Hurricanes only have one and have looked fraudulent against lesser teams like Virginia Tech and California. The next three spots are rather self-explanatory: #9 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia and Georgia beat #11 Tennessee. #12 Boise State is stuck behind these two-loss SEC teams, most likely because they’ve yet to beat a team in the Power 4. However, their only loss was a tight 37-34 battle at Oregon, which should tell the committee they’ll give their all against the national championship favorites if given the chance.
In the latest ranking release, College Football Playoff Committee Chair Warde Manuel outlined a few important criteria the committee will consider when evaluating the teams to come to their decisions.
Strength of schedule matters, but the eye test and play on the field is just as important.
Metrics are valuable, but watching the games and seeing how the teams are performing will carry the day.
Teams who make their conference championship will put in a high-esteem, even if they were to lose and be compared against a team in the same conference with fewer losses.
These are important bits to watch for these final three weeks of the regular season. Even in the top 12 above, there are some decisions that seem to support better resume (like how #4 Penn State has a better strength of schedule than #5 Indiana, even though the Hoosiers have been much more dominant), while other placements can be explained by the eye test (such as #7 Alabama over a one-loss #8 Miami who despite two losses, are hitting their stride with strong wins in favor of a team who’s play has been inconsistent). But come Selection Sunday on December 8th, we’ll see what the committee ends up valuing the most.
Games shaping playoffs in the coming weeks
Week 13 — 5 Indiana at 2 Ohio State
We’re living in a time where Indiana is competent in football! While the Hoosiers have a rather weak strength of schedule, they have a chance to prove their legitimacy when they travel to The Shoe to challenge the Buckeyes of Ohio State. Unless complete chaos ensues, this game will determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. If Indiana wins, Ohio State still maintains a strong case for an at-large bid, with quality wins and two losses against top-five opponents. But if the Buckeyes pull away, the Hoosiers aren’t a write-in for the playoff due to their lack of quality wins. Indiana will need to look competitive for all four quarters, as the committee should respect a team who goes on the road and gives a scare to one of the national title favorites in their house. However, if the Hoosiers were to get blown out by the Buckeyes, it’ll be a narrow window for a team who has no top-25 wins and looks horrible when given the chance.
Week 13 — 14 BYU at 21 Arizona State
Don’t look now, but Arizona State has quietly climbed their way up the Big 12 standings and are in strong contention for a conference title. The Sun Devils welcome a heartbroken BYU team who suffered its first loss to Kansas last week in a 17-13 slugfest. This defeat doesn’t look good on the Cougars’ resume, as the Jayhawks were 3-6 going in and had not won a road game until this past weekend. Their hopes for an at-large bid are essentially over, but they remain atop the conference regardless. Assuming these two programs win out, this weekend’s matchup will be an elimination game for the conference title. Given the strength of the other conferences, the Big 12 will most likely be a one-bid league.This type of game is paramount for a program in a less competitive conference to give themselves a shot to reach Championship Saturday.
Week 14 — 3 Texas at 15 Texas A&M
In a conference that has beaten each other up at the top, this renewed rivalry could determine who gets into the SEC championship game. Given where Texas A&M is ranked, this is a must-win. Depending on what happens in front of them, a victory for the Aggies could put them one step closer to securing an auto bid. And despite sitting at #3, if Texas were to lose this game, they’re not a shoe-in for an at-large bid. While their two losses would be to top-15 SEC opponents, their best win would be against unranked Vanderbilt, which they barely escaped 27-24. A lack of quality wins remains the problem for the Longhorns, but on Saturday, November 30 they have a chance to prove themselves when they enter the hostile environment of College Station.