An ever-awaited day that comes every four years, Election Day, which falls on November 5 this year, will determine the next President of the United States. Seats in the Senate and the House are also up for grabs and look to be just as competitive, with the potential for official results to take days to verify. This feature is to show you which races to watch on Nov. 5. However, with most states coming with a level of certainty that the polls accurately represent them, all three of these races will come down to a few notable states.
2024 United States Presidential Election
The Presidential election is currently in a dead heat and will come down to just a few swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won six of these seven states, but all of them by no more than three percentage points.
Arizona
Arizona polling data for this election shows it is leaning Republican. The combined polls have Arizona at a 1.7% lead for Trump. This was one of the closest states in 2020 when Biden won it by only 0.3 points. Trump has taken a lead over Harris in the last few months in the state. The 11 electoral votes that Arizona will carry will be critical for both campaigns in the race to 270 electoral votes.
Final Rating: Lean Republican
Georgia
The closest state in 2020, Biden only won Georgia by 11,779 votes (0.23%). Currently, the polls combined in Georgia give Trump a 1.5% lead – however, the state has been more open to electing Democrats in the past few years. If Harris wins, that would be a critical key for her, and Harris would most likely win if she held the state and its 16 electoral votes.
Final Rating: Lean Republican
Michigan
While Michigan and its 15 electoral votes used to be a stronger part of the “Blue Wall” before the 2016 election, Trump shattered the once-strong Democratic region and shifted the state’s rural areas to the right, like in other nearby states. President Biden carried this state by a margin of 2.78%, flipping it into his column in 2020. The combined polling has this state at a very close 0.5% for Harris. To win, Harris almost certainly needs this state in her column.
Final Rating: Tilt Democrat
North Carolina
With all the polls combined, Trump holds a 1.0% lead on Harris. Biden lost North Carolina by 1.34%, showing that there is a good chance that North Carolina will be among the closest states in this year’s presidential election.
Final Rating: Lean Republican
Nevada
Nevada has voted for Democrats on the presidential level since 2008. Both Clinton and Biden carried the state by 2.4%, but combined polling has given Harris only a 0.3% lead over Trump. While only having six electoral votes, Nevada can still play a large part in who wins the election and show a general direction as to who the winner might be.
Final Rating: Tilt Democrat
Pennsylvania
The keystone state may very well be the keys to the white house for the next president. It is among one of the “Blue Wall” states that Trump flipped and shifted to the right in 2016. Its 19 Electoral votes are the largest number of the swing states. The combined polling gives Trump a 0.1% lead in the state. It may very well take days if not even a week to know the results. President Biden won his home state of Pennsylvania by 1.18%, but the race has narrowed up in the past few weeks.
Final Rating: Tilt Republican
Wisconsin
Finally, Wisconsin, the state with the closest race of the “Blue Wall” states in 2020 – in which President Biden won the Badger state by only 0.77% in 2020. The combined polling only gives Vice President Harris a 0.5% lead in the state, with it, like many other states, narrowing up in the past couple of weeks. 538, which creates aggregates of national polls, has Harris with a 51% chance of winning and Trump with a 49% chance of winning, making it a toss-up until election day.
Final Rating: Tilt Democrat
2024 United States Senate Race
51 Republicans to 49 Democrats (Republicans +2)
This year’s Senate map is the roughest for Democrats, as they have to defend incumbents in two states that Trump won in 2020, each by a large margin. The two states that Trump won that Democrats are defending their incumbents in are Ohio and Montana. The polling has Republicans gaining two seats to 51 from 49, which gives them control no matter who the vice president is. Here are the six top races to watch.
Michigan
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) seeks to hold for the Democrats. Rep. Slotkin faces former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who hopes to flip the seat for the Republicans. Most sources give this race a slight lead for Slotkin, with combined polling giving her a 3.3% lead. The state is expected to be among the closest in the election on the presidential level, so voters should pay attention to see if it translates into this race.
Final Rating: Lean Democrat
Montana
Long-term incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D) is fighting for his political life this year. Going against newcomer Tim Sheehy (R), Tester has represented the seat in the Senate since 2007 but looks likely to be unseated in a run for his fourth term. Some of the reasons behind his lack of momentum are likely because it is a presidential cycle, with crossover support dying out in the past few years. Trump is on track to match or outperform his 2020 margin of 16.4%, which is likely to drag Tester to lose.
Final Rating: Likely Republican (Flip)
Ohio
Like Tester, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is in the toughest battle in his career. Brown faces Businessman Bernie Moreno (R) – who polls have behind at 0.6%. This seat will almost certainly be the closest in the Senate elections. Democrats must hold this seat to even have a chance at keeping the Senate.
Final Rating: Tilt Democrat
Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) is pitted against David McCormick (R), who worked in the George W. Bush administration. Casey is seeking his fourth term. The primary concern for Casey is that Trump may drag down his margins in the Presidential race. Despite this, Casey has held a strong lead in polls.
Final Rating: Lean Democrat
Texas
Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (R) is in a close election – similar to 2018. He is facing off against Congressman Colin Allred (D). The combined polling shows Cruz has a 3.4% lead in the state. Texas is the one potential pick-up that Democrats have a good chance in, and if Allred can flip, it would be a significant win for Senate Democrats.
Final Rating: Lean Republican
Wisconsin
Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) holds a tight lead over Eric Hovde (R). The seat is a must-win for Democrats if they want to retain control of the Senate. The combined polling gives Baldwin a 0.9 lead over Hovde. The polls have tightened in this state in the past few weeks, making it a state to watch.
Final Rating: Lean Democrat
2024 United States House of Representatives Race
House: 219 Democrats to 216 Republicans (Democrats+7)
This year’s House election results are among the closest in recent history, with every forecast not giving a clear winner. It is a coin toss as to who may win. The polling shows that Democrats will narrowly flip control of the House in their favor. If either party wins control with a 1-3 seat majority, they will have a long term ahead of them as just a few dissenting votes could kill a bill.
Races to watch
Alaska: AK- AL Lean (D)
Arizona: AZ-1 Lean (R), AZ-6 Lean (R)
California: CA-13 Lean (D: Flip) CA-22 Lean (R) CA-27 Tilt (D: Flip) CA-41 Lean (R) CA-45 Lean Tilt (R) CA-47 Lean (D)
Colorado: CO-8 Lean (D)
Iowa: IA-1 Lean (R) IA-3 Lean (R)
Maine: ME-2 Lean (D)
Michigan: MI-7 lean (R: Flip) MI-8 Tilt (D) MI-10 Lean (R)
Montana: MT-1 Likely (R)
North Carolina: NC-1 Lean (D)
Nebraska: NE-2 Lean (D: Flip)
New Jersey: NJ-7 Lean (R)
New Mexico: NM-2 Likely (D)
New York: NY-4 Lean (D: Flip) NY-17 Lean (R) NY-18 Likely (D) NY-19 Tilt (D: Flip) NY-22 Likely (D: Flip)
Oregon: OR-5 Tilt (D: Flip)
Pennsylvania: PA-7 Lean (D) PA-8 Lean (D) PA-10 Lean (R) PA-17 Lean (D)
Virginia: VA-2 Lean (R) VA-7 Lean (D)
Washington: WA-3 Tilt (R: Flip)